Editorials

Buy the rumor, sell the news.   Traders were front-running the invasion.    They pushed Gold from $1840 to $1975 in eight trading days. On Thursday, the day of the invasion, Gold advanced from $1910 to $1975 before reversing nearly $100.    Gold has closed the week below $1900 and figures to close the … Continue reading

Gold broke out of its triangle and reached $1900. It was able to lift the gold stocks up and away from critical support.   Since last Friday, Gold surged $70/oz. GDX gained 13%, while GDXJ gained 11%.   After three tests, GDX held support at $29-$30 and rebounded to an eight-month high near $35. … Continue reading

We have spent quite a bit of time writing about the start of Fed rate hikes as a catalyst for the Gold market.    Gold bulls and gold bugs have latched onto this potential positive but without the qualification.   The Fed starting a new rate hike cycle is usually bullish for Gold because … Continue reading

There’s good news and bad news.   The good news is that gold stocks and precious metals at large are approaching a major bottom.   The bad news is that history shows potential for sharp selloffs in the weeks to a few months preceding these major bottoms.    Here is a look at the … Continue reading

Gold and gold stocks showed unexpected strength last week, and although they closed the week in a disappointing fashion, their larger outlook is growing increasingly positive as multiple catalysts abound.   We have touched on the Fed rate hike cycle catalyst.   In seven of the last eight rate hike cycles, Gold and gold … Continue reading

History shows that whatever the ongoing regime is (be it inflation, disinflation, or accelerating inflation), Gold usually bottoms around the start of a Fed rate hike cycle.   Considering the five most significant bottoms in the last 50 years (1971, 1976, 1985, 1999, 2016), we find that all but one coincided with the start … Continue reading

This year has been rough for precious metals investors.    The metals failed to react to normally bullish news, and the correction that began in August 2020 intensified at the end of the second quarter. Until days ago, Silver was down over 20% on the year and Gold nearly 10%.   The prospect of … Continue reading

I think we’ve seen this movie.   Gold is in a larger downtrend and correction but rebounds after a Fed meeting, leading many to hope Gold struck an important bottom.   You can probably guess what I’m thinking.    The weekly chart below shows that Gold bounced from $1750 again.    It also shows … Continue reading

Last week we wrote about potential downside targets in Gold & Silver.   They are in a correction and have been in a downtrend that has begun its 17th month.    The fact that they are in a severe correction and not a bullish consolidation speaks to the fundamentals, which currently are not bullish.   … Continue reading

Last week we wrote that the precious metals sector remained in a larger correction.   We discussed the performance before the first rate hike in a new Fed rate hike cycle. Gold typically declines several months before the hike, but then rebounds significantly. Same for the gold stocks.   Although the recent decline could … Continue reading

Gold popped above resistance at $1835 to start the month but reversed course rather violently before it could even test $1900. After rallying $150 in six weeks, Gold plunged $80 in only three days.   Simply put, the correction continues.    The one positive is that Gold has held up very well amid the … Continue reading

Gold is sporting a significant cup and handle pattern. It remains in the handle portion of the pattern.   Cup and handle patterns show up quite a bit but especially on smaller time frames.     There are not too many examples of a multi-year cup and handle pattern in the major markets.   Nevertheless, a … Continue reading